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Forex Fundamental Analysis

Wed,09 Nov 2016-   FundamentalOutlook


At last Tuesday November 9th, 2016 gave a histrionic end to the most acrimonious U.S Presidential election by electing Donald John Trump as the new and 45th President of the United States of America for the next four years. From a total eligible population of 225 m Americans almost 130m roughly casted ballots across 50 U.S states. The results were shocking in the way that Mr. Trump and his mutineers articulated bizarre falsehoods, implemented policy points that strain credibility and broke each and every rule. The main striking thing that comes to mind is that by disregarding every orthodox insight he has no point to start listening and following now. And as like Brexit, interest group will be more atrocious about the prejudice which has now been legitimized and released against them.

Trump anticipated his victory as “Brexit plus plus plus”. Under President Trump government the range of possibilities in long run flouts the fancy whereas in short run the investors should follow the Brexit playbook. As people voted for change and set on to concern about the details later. The chances that things really changes are vague while the risk of an ungodly mess under his presidency is real.

"What bothers the markets are uncertainties about a new president, his issues of trade, and people are worried about how other world actors will react to a Trump presidency," if he wins, said Strategas head of policy research Dan Clifton. There are six ways according to Financial Times in which President Trump plans to bring changes. These are

  1. Trade: Mr. Trump opposed the TPPA deal and has threatened to impose punitive 45 percent tariffs on China goods that will fuel fears of trade war.
  2. Foreign Policy: Mr. Trump plans are to be open to both South Korea and Japan to develop nuclear arsenals.
  3. Tax Policy: He promised the biggest tax revolution by assuring to cut taxes across the sheet. No business has to pay more than 15 percent of his profit in taxes (pure businessman criteria).
  4.  Climate change: Mr. Trump plans are to cancel Paris Climate agreement and to stop all UN global warming programs payments by United States .
  5. Healthcare: Mr. Trump vowed that Obamacare reforms must be “released and replaced”.
  6. Immigration: Mr.Trump has plans to ban Muslim immigration and unauthorized 11m immigrants deportation.

As far as according to the citizens of U.S they gave some mixed statements about Mr. Trump like, as a person said “I don’t know if I trust him”, “the lesser of two evils”, “make America great again” and “drain the swamp”. It will take a time for people to properly comment on the new U.S President.

In the words of Trump he confidently said about himself,
“I mean, part of the beauty in me is that I’m very rich”. He is never afraid of saying what is in his mind or what his opinions are and no matter how harsh his words are. In political terms Trump isn’t politically right but it’d be enjoyable to have such a politician who is transparent. Its too early to come to any conclusion about what will happen under Trump Presidency as it’s not even a day since he is elected the New President and to decide whether his policies are right or wrong  some time is required and let’s hope for the best as well.

Sources: Financial Times, CNBC
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Aimen Tayyab

Financial Analyst